welcome to the organic green doctor blog

i am a family physician who was diagnosed with
early mild cognitive impairment(mci) amnestic type on december 21, 2010
this is a precursor to alzheimers disease
because of this diagnosis i have opted to stop practicing medicine
this blog will be about my journey with this disease
please feel free to follow me along this path
i will continue blogging on organic gardening, green living,
solar power, rainwater collection, and healthy living
i will blog on these plus other things noted to be interesting

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

how accurate were the polls


last week i listed the polls right before the election
today i have added what the election results are so far this morning
the election results are posted right after what the polls estimate was

overall the election went off without problems
people voted in large numbers
more people voted for either presidential candidate than ever before
the votes are still being counted and will be counted for several days
the final certification for all the states will be by early december

more than likely the results below arent going to change much if at all

when you look at the numbers its unlikely that trump can beat biden with what numbers are left to be counted

no there is not wide spread election fraud

so yes biden will win the election

the national numbers were closer than predicted
susan collins in maine did better than expected
so did mitch in kentucky and graham in south carolina and cornyn in texas

in the presidential race they the pollsters missed on north carolina florida and ohio

biden won back the blue wall ie michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania

the control of the senate will be decided by the two georgia senate races in january 
if the democrats win both they have control
if the republicans win at least one they will be in control

here are the state by state of those swing states polls for president
biden is listed first then trump

national    52   42     now 50.8   47.5
biden is ahead about 5 million votes in the national vote with that expected to widen as some large states havent finalized their vote calculations

arizona              49   46     now 49.5   49
pennsylvania     50   44     now 49.8   49.1   
florida                49   46     now 47.9   51.2
georgia              49   46     now 49.5   49.3 
north carolina     51   46     now 48.7   50.1
michigan            51   42     now 50.6   47.9
wisconsin           52   42     now 49.6   48.9     
nevada               49   43     now 50.2   47.5
texas                  46   48     now 46.4   52.2
ohio                    46   46     now 45.2   53.4
iowa                    45  47      now 45      53.2    

then there were the senate races
arizona             52   46   note its probably closer than that     
now 51.2   48.8   

colorado           52   44    now 53.4   44.4
texas                45  50     now 45.2   51.8
georgia             47   46
north carolina   48   46    now 47   48.7  
maine               48   42    susan collins is probably closer than this   
now 42.2   51.1 

iowa                  48    47  now 45.2   51.8        
south carolina   44   46   lindsey graham may make it     now 44.2   54.5  
kentucky           40   52   mitch will probably be back       now 38.2   57.8

in the next elections i plan on taking the polls with a grain of sand
the polls are like a construction estimate

the organicgreen doctor

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