welcome to the organic green doctor blog

i am a family physician who was diagnosed with
early mild cognitive impairment(mci) amnestic type on december 21, 2010
this is a precursor to alzheimers disease
because of this diagnosis i have opted to stop practicing medicine
this blog will be about my journey with this disease
please feel free to follow me along this path
i will continue blogging on organic gardening, green living,
solar power, rainwater collection, and healthy living
i will blog on these plus other things noted to be interesting

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

covid 19 effect on the exponential curve

COVID 19 EFFECT ON THE EXPONENTIAL CURVE
for those who dont understand exponential growth
here is a simplified explanation

lets say you have someone with the covid 19 infection
then every 5 days the cases double
here is what it would look like
note i rounded it off some
1
2
4
8
16
32
64
128
256
512
1024
2048
4096
8000
16000
32000
64000
128000
256000
512000
1,000,000+

thats what just happened in italy and china

we should be listening to the folks in italy if we want to know what it could be like
if all of us dont take this real real real real serious

with one case you could in a few weeks end up with
1 million folks infected
thats just one case to start all this now
1%+ will die
that would be 10,000 folks
of those 800,000 will not get bad sick
of those 200,000 will get a lot sicker
for every 1000 folks over 80 who get this 150 of them will die
for every 1000 folks in my age range who get this 80 will die

in italy doctors have been faced with does a 85 year old grandmother get the ventilator or does the 40 year old mother get the ventilator
the 40 year old mother gets the ventilator
the 85 year old grandmother is left to die

those are the decisions that are being made right now in italy

if it gets this bad here our doctors will have to make the same decisions
like
doctors have to make on the battlefields

if you can do anything like isolate yourself wash your hands etc to prevent some of those early numbers above you can greatly alter the exponential curve that you read about

lets all take this serious
real real real real serious

i hope all the predictions are wrong
but i dont think so

we cant afford not to do what we can now to slow this down
no matter what it takes

the organicgreen doctor

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